High price inhibits the release of demand, and steel price is expected to enter the short-term adjustment stage

Since the Spring Festival, the price of some steel products has increased by more than 1000 yuan, which has led to the loss of many terminal projects due to the rising cost, and also inhibited the overall release of the current downstream demand. Judging from the inventory changes this week, the inventory of the five major varieties fell by another 1.3 million tons, and the inventory pressure continued to ease. However, the inventory decline narrowed, the apparent demand decreased slightly, the market fear of heights was pushed up, and the expectation of falling was strengthened.



Inventory down 1.3 million tons



On Friday, the output of large varieties decreased slightly by 74200 tons, and the inventory decreased by another 1.3 million tons. The decline of inventory slowed down slightly, and the apparent demand decreased by 468700 tons compared with last week. It also reflected that after the price continued to rise, the terminal demand was restrained, and the downstream demand was not fully released. However, with the continuous decline of inventory, inventory pressure gradually eased, and the support for steel price was strong.



At present, there are other factors affecting the steel price



Central Bank continues MLF



In April, the central bank launched a 150 billion yuan one-year MLF (medium-term lending facility) operation. As a total of 156.1 billion yuan MLF and tmlf were due in April, the central bank continued the operation with a small reduction, and carried out a 10 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on April 15. Overall, the monetary policy is relatively stable, and the market generally expects that the quoted interest rate of LPR loan market will remain unchanged on April 20. Therefore, in the short term, the monetary policy has a positive impact on the market The field effect is limited.



However, we need to pay attention. In May, the issuance of local bonds is expected to be further accelerated, and the disturbance of tax period is superimposed. We should pay attention to the change of capital. We can not rule out that the monetary policy will increase the volume in stages from May to June to release the positive effect.



10000 projects started, total investment over 4 trillion



This year is the first year of the 14th five year plan, and the commencement of major projects is accelerating. According to the incomplete statistics of the national development and Reform Commission, the number of major projects under centralized construction in 2021 has reached 10000, and the total investment scale has exceeded 4 trillion, increasing the market demand for steel. In addition, it is understood that in recent years, Shanxi, Gansu, Henan and other places have intensively deployed major project construction financing docking to promote project acceleration. The demand for steel will continue to release.



Automobile production in April decreased by 5.1% year on year



Automobile production is closely related to plate consumption. According to the data of China Automobile Association, in the first ten days of April, 11 key enterprises completed 488000 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 5.1%. The decline in production is related to the recent shortage of automotive "chips". China Auto Association predicts that the impact in the second quarter will be greater than that in the first quarter. It is understood that FAW Volkswagen Audi will reduce production by 30% in April, which is expected to exceed 20000 tons. To a certain extent, it will also affect the release of automobile steel.